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People in Encinitas practice social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic March 30, 2020. The pandemic has increased burdens on immigrants without legal status. (CNS photo/Mike Blake, Reuters)
April 5, 2020
Catholic San Francisco
Aggressive social distancing should be continued as pressure on the health care system continues to grow, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said.
He told an April 4 online media briefing that there is no timetable for easing shelter-in-place orders, saying the state is focused on preparing the health care system for a surge of COVID-19 cases and protecting vulnerable people.
He said a well-known athlete contacted him to ask if the NFL season might open on schedule in the fall. He advised caution on resuming activities where people congregate.
“We’ll be moved by the facts and enough testing to determine whether that’s appropriate,” he said. “That’s not something I anticipate happening in the next few months.”
During a Twitter chat on April 2, Newsom said there is evidence that social distancing is slowing the infection rate. “We’re seeing a curve that’s not otherwise what it would have been,” he said.
However, he said the emergency will call for “another month, month-and-a-half” of intense focus to combat the virus.
The number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care in California rose to 1,008 on April 4, up nearly 11% percent from the previous day. The number of Californians testing positive for COVID-19 also continued to rise at double-digit levels.
Newsom said the state is “preparing for a scenario where we need 50,000 beds,” adding that the effort includes rapidly expanding testing, stockpiling personal protective equipment for health care workers and recruiting licensed health care volunteers to serve on the front lines.
He said the state is closely monitoring more than 8,800 institutional facilities including nursing homes, noting that two-thirds of the residents in some skilled nursing facilities are testing positive.
Newsom added that more than 7,000 hotel rooms have been set aside for the homeless. “We’re getting people off the street in real time,” he said.
Revised national estimates by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine show that the need for COVID-19 hospital resources is less than previously thought.
The revised forecasts reflect "a massive infusion of new data," IMHE director Dr. Christopher Murray said April 6. New data on COVID-19 health service use from multiple states, including New York, Massachusetts, Georgia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, and California, has led to revisions down in estimated need to deal with the pandemic.
But Murray stressed that the forecasts assume that social distancing will remain in place until the end of May.
Newsom said the crux of the effort is social distancing.
“Don’t force our hand in that respect,” he said, noting that a friend had called him distraught that her son wanted to go to party with his friends. “We can’t allow cabin fever to come in, allow people to begin congregating again.”
The forefront of the COVID-19 disaster began in China, then moved to Europe and is now surging in the United States, with New York as the epicenter.
Cases are expected to escalate throughout the Americas, Dr. Carissa Etienne of the World Health Organization told a March 31 media briefing in Washington, D.C.
She said it is vital that countries decide what social distancing measures need to be implemented and for how long. “These are the only way to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed by too many sick people in too short a time," she said.
"At least" two to three months of social distancing seems prudent, based on the experience in other countries, Dr. Etienne said.
There were signs of hope in Italy, the nation hit hardest by outbreak in terms of severity of illness and death per capita.
Worldometer.info showed the number of new cases per day and the number of deaths per day slowing over the past week.
An estimated 30,000 lives have been saved as a result of lockdown measures taken in early March by Italian authorities, the website said April 3, quoting a report from Istituto Superiore di Sanità.